Losers in the Apple iPad launch
There it is then, another culture-changing device from Apple, as Mike Elgan puts it. The iPad may not be everything to everyone, but Apple has launched the device with its usual thoroughness, and it's backed up by apps, media and 3G right from the start.
So yes, the iPad should sell well. The concept is nicely thought out, the design excellent as per usual and the marketing slick.
Who will hurt the most from the iPad then? My take is that Microsoft will smart the most. Perhaps Microsoft was too early with its TabletPCs, technologically speaking, and insisting on using styluses with them but they never really took off and look clunky compared to the iPad. Like geeky clipboards, unlike the cleanly designed Apple variant. Unfortunately for HP and Microsoft, I don't think there will be many takers for the Slate when it comes out.
Amazon will suffer too. Its Kindle is now officially boring and overpriced. End of story really.
What happened Intel being the official CPU supplier to Apple? The iPad runs custom silicon, a 1GHz A4 chip, made by PA Semi that was bought by Apple in 2008. Not much is known about the A4 at this stage. It could possibly be based on the Power architecture and it does apparently have an integrated graphics unit, like Intel's latest chips do. Clearly, Intel didn't have the parts Apple wanted for the iPad, and it'd be interesting to know why. I'm guessing power efficiency was a major driver behind Apple's decision to go with the P A Semi-designed part.
Adobe not looking too Flash on the iPad either. There's a Mexican stand-off going on between Adobe and Apple, with no Flash support for the iPhone or the iPad on the horizon. Some people will say that's a good thing, but most users will be annoyed when they hit sites that require Flash on their iPads, and there are many many many of those around.
As for the content, too bad if your media organisation isn't supplying material for the iPad. or outside the US. Is Fairfax or APN talking to Apple? If not, they should be.
The iPad isn't a great fit for Vodafone NZ in its present configuration as the 3G support will be 850MHz and 2100MHz, and not 900MHz, just like the iPhone. Telecom NZ of course has 850MHz 3G but will it be able to resell iPads? It didn't get the iPhone.
Plus, there will be no voice call facility on the iPad, only data. How will that fly with our Two Telcos, both of which love putting together Byzantine calling plans that ask you to pay in advance for minutes that you may or may not use, to subsidise handsets?
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Comment by Forsyth, on 28-Jan-2010 10:49
Can the iPad do for books online what the iPod is doing for music? I.e. making purchasing the 3rd party product such a seamless part of the device usage that users actually do it? And more importantly why aren't the big media companies rushing for an iTunes-type iNews service on the iPad?? It looks like the kind of device that could do for newspapers online what iTunes is doing for music and what iPad looks like it will do for books. They've been crying out (without knowing it probably) for a device that moves the physical act of newspaper reading into the digital medium - is this it??
Comment by Justin L, on 28-Jan-2010 10:50
i've had an hp tx2 for a few months, it's a 12" laptop, it's slick, shiny, beautiful, all black and rounded other than some subtle vector graphics on the case, it's slim and light, has a dual core cpu, 4gb ram, 500gb hard drive, decent graphics processor that runs half-life 2 and other games fairly well at its native resolution, but here's the kicker:
the screen pivots 180 degrees and closes facing up, and the screen is a multi-touch screen
i connect it to a 24" screen at home at 1920x1200 with a wireless keyboard and mouse (i also bring the mouse with me when i'm out), it plays movies and tv in hd perfectly, photo and video editing is smooth and attractive, and my web experience is full featured, responsive and crisp, with a choice of any browser i like (i use opera, firefox, and chrome regularly for different things)
i have no doubt that the ipad will be the usual over-hyped delusionware, that is, a day late and a dollar short but with apple somehow once again convincing its cult that it invented something, when, in fact, it put out a product with no original features and a lot of things disabled
i mean, this thing from apple will undoubtedly be horribly crippled and proprietary, like all apple devices. you won't be installing your own choice of OS, you won't be developing for it for free in any language you like, you won't be choosing which browser and other programs you want to use, you won't be able to view and edit anything but a specific set of file formats, you won't be making your own choices about organizing your files and programs, you'll be living with whatever your master thinks is kosher, which is a very feature limited and conservative set of policies
Comment by freitasm, on 28-Jan-2010 11:05
@Forsyth I think you are missing the point here. PCs, laptops, netbooks, tablet PCs will go the way of specialised appliances. The iPad will go the way of a personal connected device. People will need a browser and some specific applications.
In this scenarios no one cares if your PC is bigger than mine, how many cores you have or how many pixels your widescreen LCD has...
Comment by twatterbleep, on 28-Jan-2010 11:17
Nice summary, Juha.
I'm not sure that the 3G is going to be the killer part of the iPad. It's going to be the content and the convenience.
I don't commute (otherwise I'd want the 3G) but I use my iPhone in wi0fi both at home and at work. The iPad will be no different for me.
I'd like to think that it would pair quite happily with my iPhone when I wanted some 3G though.
Comment by Angelic, on 28-Jan-2010 11:25
@freitasm
"In this scenarios no one cares if your PC is bigger than mine, how many cores you have or how many pixels your widescreen LCD has..."
That is laughable, people will be displaying their IPads as status symbols just like every version of the IPhone. A device with 64GB of storage and no OLED screen is a joke. If I need a bag to carry it's 10" screen in I may as well keep my ultra compact Lenovo with a dual core and, are you ready, wifi!! Revolutionary.
Comment by euanandrews, on 28-Jan-2010 11:29
@Justin L - Agree 100% but I would have been even more critical.
Wrong size, too big to be portable, to small to be full featured like a PC, and it will still be restricted and locked down, and of course overpriced.
Nope, I don't buy into the hype.
Comment by freitasm, on 28-Jan-2010 11:43
Ooops, my comment was to Justin L, not Forsyth...
Comment by freitasm, on 28-Jan-2010 11:44
Angelic, a laptop PC at 10" is way too heavy. Of course people will carry their "status symbol" but reality is it will be thin, and weigh 1.5 pounds, instead of being a heavy laptop.
Comment by psycik, on 28-Jan-2010 12:55
I'm agreeing with @freitasm here. The TX2 while nice, doesn't have a dedicated touch UI, but windows with your finger being the mouse, it's heavier, fatter and more expensive.
I think the iPad is a good step up from the iPhone and a good move towards an Atom based tablet - which currently doesn't exist.
And before you bring out the fanboi calls, no I don't have any apple products, and my Sweet spot would be a W7 base Atom ION2 machine with software keyboard with similar physical dimentions to the iPad.
Comment by macuser, on 28-Jan-2010 13:47
People will display this as a status symbol because of the design and the brand power that Apple has.
If you think people other than us gloat about specs, you've got to be joking.
i imagine this will be much faster than your ultra portable laptop, yeah it will be lacking the customizability of a fully fledged OS, but then thats why they have a Laptop/Desktop for doing those things.
More Features != More Better.
If people don't find features easy to use, then they won't use them, it's that simple.
Comment by lotech, on 28-Jan-2010 14:03
@Angelic OLEDs big flaw is that is hard to see in daylight. The IPS feature should give you similar colour representation as OLED - but with the visibility of LCD. But I'm sure you'd say the opposite if they went with an OLED screen.
@Justin_L I don't know a single other modern phone/mobile platform that isn't closed in some way - you still need to jailbreak Android - and if anything you should be comparing the iPad to all these new Android based tablets (and phones) - not a laptop. The iPad is no more a laptop than a Vespa is a car. Different people need different gear.
There is plenty of market for people who don't want any of the 'choice' you argue for. My mum will be all over this - cause a laptop is just too much choice and confusion. This will just work, and well.
And lastly - once it gets jailbroken it'll be very nerd friendly - and more have a lot more uses we can think of right now - the USB dock adaptor could open the door to all sorts of little things.
Comment by lotech, on 28-Jan-2010 14:14
Whoops brain fart, I'll make some sense of that last paragraph -
And lastly - once it gets jailbroken it'll be very nerd friendly - and have a lot more uses than we can think of right now - the USB dock adaptor could open the door to all sorts of things. And we we all love a challenge.
Comment by Tony Meyer, on 28-Jan-2010 14:30
Both Telecom and Vodafone have shown themselves quite willing to sell prepay expires-in-at-most-a-month data without any voice/data connections (vodem/t-stick/mifi, etc). Given that the announced US data pricing is much closer to current NZ pricing I imagine that Telecom and Vodafone are quite happy.
Since it's unlocked (even in the US, although it would have to be here anyway), you're certain to be able to purchase it anywhere you can buy a Touch. So Telecom is really just as straightforward as Vodafone, really.
Comment by Linuxluver, on 28-Jan-2010 14:43
I can't see myself buying one. It will be same Steve Jobs'-dictated experience we get on all Apple gear.....and that wasn't good enough for me on my iPod Touch and I doubt I'll be any happier forking out for an iPad.
Instead, I got an Android phone and that's worked out really well. Best kept secret around. I'm thinking an Android-based tablet like the iPad will see the format reach its potential.....though not until after millions of iPad have been sold to people who are happy to live with the world as Steve Jobs defines it.
That just isn't me.
Comment by Jason, on 28-Jan-2010 15:59
re: Android Tablet.
HP had 2 tablets at CES, the one that Microsoft showed, which ran Windows, and the one that Microsoft didn't show - the prettier one - which ran Android.
Android is showing up in a lot of tablets.
That being said, I'm going to be buying two. The wife saw it and said, "I want one, can you buy it now?" She was not happy to be told that it would have to wait for 60d.
Comment by phreek, on 29-Jan-2010 03:03
Vodafone's 3G network (as opposed to their 900MHz GSM network) is 2100MHz just like most of the rest of the world. So why wouldn't this be a good fit?
Comment by KevDaly, on 29-Jan-2010 07:19
Whatever the iPad can do for books, it apparently won't be doing outside the US: that feature's US-only. There's no indication whether negotiations are under way for the rest of us but I hope so (then again, we can't buy Kindles so maybe NZ would still be left out).
That said, I actually like the form factor - yes it's a big iPod Touch, but I don't think that's a bad thing.
Comment by Alan Pugh, on 29-Jan-2010 09:52
without Flash it's useless as an Internet browsing device, simple as that!
Comment by freitasm, on 29-Jan-2010 22:03
Phreek... Vodafone 3G network is 2100MHz only in the main centres. Everywhere their 3G is 900MHz.
Like the iPhone the iPad is a perfect fit for the Telecom XT network, which is 850/2100MHz network.
Comment by Bnsofts, on 29-Jan-2010 22:37
Ohh this is great thanks for sharing.
Comment by Foo, on 31-Jan-2010 00:46
Great article Juha.
@Jason - 60 days until release? Won't it be longer for NZ (June/July) or are you plannning on importing direct from te US?
Comment by dacraka, on 31-Jan-2010 11:41
If NZ wants the 3G functionality, our mobile operators will need to come out with the new micro SIM cards (unless they already support it?).
If you watched the keynote, you can see that some of the websites were displaying the "Broken Flash" symbol and Steve semi-quickly scrolling away from it haha.
Personally I love the design of the device, thin, clean and simple. However like most people - they wanted a camera (for two-way video chat) which would have been great.
Will I get one? I'll think about it when it has a front-facing camera : )
Comment by lotech, on 31-Jan-2010 14:14
Microsims are just smaller shaped SIMs - other than the size of the plastic it is just the same - you could just set a razor blade to a normal one and make it work.
Comment by Rory, on 16-Feb-2010 02:44
It is as one of the comments said, a lame attempt by Apple to convince the buyers that they came up with something original!
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Comment by lotech, on 28-Jan-2010 10:29
The A4 chip is ARM based (like the iphone) and does offer really good power specs and seeing as though they're using the iPhone OS - makes all this sooooo much easier to develop and faster too.
I think its time to rename the OS though - iphone isn't really correct. OS-X Mobile maybe?
Now if only my blog post on this would show up properly....